A new project developed by American scientists can predict crime in big cities.
According to a study published in the journal Nature Human Behavior, social scientists at the University of Chicago (USA) have developed a new algorithm that can predict crime in a large city near where people live. with high precision.
The study, titled “Predicting Urban Crime and Revealing Crime Trends in American Cities,” was supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the College of Arts and Sciences. Neubauer culture and society.
This new algorithm divides the city of Chicago into squares of 93 square meters. The researchers then examined each street block using hundreds of thousands of sociological, historical data on the city’s violent crime and property crime. Based on the information collected, the new algorithm will predict the risk of crimes that may occur at a specific time and space 1 week in advance, reaching 90% accuracy.
The study found that applying the new algorithm to data from other major cities, including Atlanta, Los Angeles and Philadelphia, also gave fairly accurate predictions.
Crime prediction models have been used by many law enforcement agencies before, but are not very accurate because they are based on a narrower set of factors, leaving out the nuanced relationship between crime, environment, and crime. the complex social environment of cities, and the impact of police enforcement.
In 2012, the Chicago Police Department and academic researchers developed the “Risk Victim and Crime Model”. The model uses factors such as age and arrest history to generate a list of potential shooters, or victims and perpetrators of mass shootings. This list later leaked out, causing many lawsuits. In 2017, an investigation by the Chicago Sun-Times revealed that nearly half of the people identified by the model as potential perpetrators had never been charged with illegal gun possession, of which 13% had never been charged. never been charged with a serious crime.
(Refer to QTM)