The sad ending is called Venom 3
Sony Pictures has billed Venom: The Last Dance as the final chapter in the comedy series about an alien symbiotic with an Earth man played by Tom Hardy. But with a domestic opening of $51 million, 44% and 55% lower than the previous two installments, the film signaled the end of superhero cinema as the dominant force at the box office.
Venom 3's failure caused the newly rekindled hope from Deadpool & Wolverine to fade away. Photo: Sony.
Superhero movies were once an indispensable “fishing rod” of the film industry. In 2018 and 2019, the average global gross of superhero movies was more than $1 billion. This year, that number is only half that, even with the record-breaking success of Deadpool & Wolverine.
In fact, the collaboration of Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman is the only comic book movie to become a hit after Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse released in June 2023. Since then, the genre has suffered an unusual box office drought. From The Flash, The Marvels to Madame Web, Joker: Folie à Deux all earned disappointing numbers.
From 2015 to 2019, 25 out of 30 superhero titles (83%) grossed more than $500 million worldwide. Post-pandemic, the situation is reversed: As of 2022, 10 of 17 superhero titles (59%) grossed less than $500 million globally.
The reasons for the decline in box office revenue vary by film. DC is plagued by scandals and leadership changes. Marvel has saturated the market with its Disney+ shows and is in the process of limiting new movies. Meanwhile, Sony is trying to build a universe of Spider-Man related characters without Spider-Man. However, the common point is the clear decline in the commercial value of this film genre.
It is difficult to repeat the feat of Deadpool & Wolverine
Financial “headwinds” create almost existential pressure on the superhero movie slate in 2025. After releasing Deadpool & Wolverine in 2024, Marvel Studios accelerated again with three Captain America movies : Brave New World , Thunderbolts and The Fantastic Four: First Steps .
“Nothing is certain here. There's still a lot of goodwill for Marvel. This is still the largest superhero cinematic universe in Hollywood. But to answer the question of whether new projects will do as well as Deadpool & Wolverine, I don't see that happening with any of these movies,” commented Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. essay.
Experts predict that it will be difficult for any superhero movie in 2025 to achieve the same results as Deadpool & Wolverine. Photo: Marvel.
One important factor that Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts had to contend with was their degree of reliance on characters and storylines from several previous Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) titles, including the shows Disney+'s The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Hawkeye , along with cinematic offerings Black Widow , Eternals, Ant-Man and the Wasp , Captain America: Civil War , even 2008's The Incredible Hulk .
That connection has been an advantage for Marvel Studios since its inception, but has been seen as a hindrance for recent projects like Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Secret Invasion and The Marvels.
In contrast, The Fantastic Four is set in an alternate timeline, allowing the film to mark a new direction that insiders describe as reinvigorating the studio.
In terms of stature, the Fantastic Four are especially important in the Marvel comic universe as they are known as the first superhero family. However, two 20th Century Fox films in the 2000s and 2010s were both flops.
Marvel Studios can't let that happen again: Robert Downey Jr. is set to return as the team's archenemy, Doctor Doom, in 2026's Avengers: Doomsday. Along with 2027's Avengers: Secret Wars, the film will be directed by Joe and Anthony Russo – who directed two the most recent Avengers movie with a global gross exceeding $2 billion. In other words, Marvel has set themselves an extremely high bar for reintroducing these core characters, and their challenge is to exceed that bar.
“Fantastic Four has to do better than Captain America and Thunderbolts, because they want a few more Avengers movies,” Bock said.
Marvel Studios is also committed to co-producing Sony Pictures' fourth Spider-Man film with Tom Holland, to be directed by Destin Daniel Cretton (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings).
Sony Animation is also producing the third (and final) Spider-Verse film and the Spider-Noir TV division it is making with Nicolas Cage for Amazon. But the future of Sony's Spider-Man Universe (SSU) movies, made without Holland or Marvel Studios, remains up in the air.
Sony has the ambition to build a Spider-Man Universe without Spider-Man, but it is difficult to be sure of victory. Photo: Sony.
Although Venom: The Last Dance ends with an after-credits trailer, there are currently no other SSU projects on Sony's slate following the release of Kraven the Hunter (rated R) in December with Aaron Taylor-Johnson.
“SSU hasn't completely collapsed yet, but Venom is feeling the pressure of stifling superhero spin-offs. This is not a good outlook for the studio, which has plans for several Spider Man titles each year. There is no doubt that Sony needs to go back to the drawing board,” the expert said.
The future is uncertain
However, the strongest influx of superheroes in 2025 comes from DC Studios. In January 2023, newly appointed co-directors James Gunn and Peter Safran announced a completely new slate of 10 movies and TV shows, expected to reboot the DC Cinematic Universe ( DCU) in a more creative direction.
The first of those projects, the animated series Creature Commandos, debuted on Max in December. However, the project with more focus is Superman, which Gunn wrote and directed.
“I don't think there's any need to emphasize Superman's importance to the entire DCU. Probably opening with $100 million (domestic), something DC hasn't been able to do in quite some time, with the exception of 2022's The Batman, which, like Joker: Folie à Deux, was produced outside the DCU . Movies from Warner Bros. and DC will truly be on the brink if Superman doesn't succeed. They have to make some big decisions,” Mr. Bock said.
Gunn and Safran pledged that no DC project would proceed without a completed script, also helping to minimize the company's risk if Superman fails. Only two projects, Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow and the streaming series Lanterns, have gone into production, along with the animated film Dynamic Duo. Projects featuring less prominent characters such as Booster Gold, Swamp Thing and Authority have not been greenlit until now.
DC wants to rebuild the cinematic universe with the iconic character Superman but can only walk and navigate. Photo: DC.
However, Warner Bros. and Disney remained steadfast with their DC and Marvel film projects this decade.
“There are still no movies that can replace superheroes at the box office in terms of earning potential. Until we see some other genre take over, they will continue to invest in the genre this,” Bock concluded.
